【Special Features】Think about the Taiwan Contingency
While some argue the possibility of the PRC’s military invasion of Taiwan, others question the PRC’s capability of such an invasion. Where does the truth lie? How is the world trying to face this issue? How should Japan deal with it?
On the Special Features page, we discuss it in the Geoeconomics Briefing, the Geoeconomics Insight, and studies by our researchers in addition to other related documents.
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Taiwan Contingency: Original Texts and Resources
We have uploaded original resources that have widely gained attention, such as remarks of high officials or government announcements.
Below is the list of original points for the discussion as a first step of introducing original texts and resources. You can read one-word commentaries and points for each text.
President Xi Jinping’s report to China’s 2022 party congress / Remarks by Adm. Phil Davidson at the US Congress / Denying Remarks by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley at the US Congress / Statement regarding Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China
ARTICLES
You can find all the articles on the Taiwan Contingency, including those of the Geoeconomics Briefing series by the IOG experts.
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2023.03.02
How Xi Jinping is fortifying China’s economic security
Naoko Eto
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2022.11.03
How the Taiwan issue represents the U.S. and China’s battle for legitimacy
Naoko Eto
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2022.10.20
China faces challenges in wake of Pelosi’s Taiwan visit
Shinji Yamaguchi
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2022.10.17
What did Nancy Pelosi’s visit do for Taiwan?
Yoshiyuki Ogasawara
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2022.10.11
Japan has much to learn from Taiwan’s countering of China’s sharp power
Wei-Hsin Huang
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2022.04.28
Russian invasion may sway China against a forceful approach to Taiwan
Yasuhiro Matsuda
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2021.06.29
Why Taiwan is more important than ever to the Japan-U.S. relationship
Masaya Inoue
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2021.06.24
Time to re-examine Japan’s longstanding ambiguity over Taiwan
Ayumi Teraoka
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2021.06.17
Why the world depends on Taiwan and TSMC’s high-performance chips
Momoko Kawakami
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2021.06.10
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan: Why Japan should prepare for the worst
Sadamasa Oue
VIDEOS
You can find all the videos on the Taiwan Contingency.
SOURCES
Original Texts and Resources
Below is the list of original points for the discussion as a first step of introducing original texts and resources. You can read one-word commentaries and points for each text.
Transcript: President Xi Jinping’s report to China’s 2022 party congress
On October 22nd, 2022, General Secretary Xi Jinping, as a representative of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, submitted a report to 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.
It drew wide attention in the media coverage as the report indicated that China “will never promise to renounce the use of force”. Yet the report also discusses Taiwan as follows: “This is directed solely at interference by outside forces and the few separatists seeking “Taiwan independence” and their separatist activities; it is by no means targeted at our Taiwan compatriots”. If they decide to resort to force, its ramification is likely to spread across a wide area. Yet it has to be kept in mind that the targets here are very limited in the PRC’s perspective. The transcript is published by Nikkei Asia.
Remarks by Adm. Phil Davidson at the 2022 US Congress
Click here for the Video
Click here for the Article
On March 9th, 2021, then Adm. Phil Davidson argued the threat of PRC’s invasion of Taiwan is “manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years” (01:04:10- in the video). The remark was reported sensationally, gaining huge attention from the world. Yet the fact that the statement was based on budgets and made close to his retirement should not be neglected.
Click here for the Video
Click here for the Article
On June 17th, 2021, at the Senate Appropriations Committee, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley testified about the Cross-Strait unification as follows:
Firstly, the PRC is currently pursuing “actual no kidding capability” in order to carry out an operation for PRC’s military domination of Taiwan.
Secondly, as the PRC does not have much intent or motive of seeking Cross-Strait unification in the immediate future, and it does not have enough capacity for that either, there is no reason to use military means. (27:50- in the video). While he acknowledged that Chinese unification is the core interest of the PRC, he suggested the probability of the PRC employing means other than force, correcting the remark by Adm. Phil Davidson on March 9th.
Click here for the Original Text
On August 2nd, 2022, Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives visited Taiwan.
Media spent much time reporting the news, and it also attracted worldwide attention that the PRC was strongly opposed to the visit and conducted military exercises around Taiwan.
You can look at the “Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China” below. A large portion of the statement is used to repeat that the United States should respect the one-China policy; “ reunification of the motherland” is “the common aspiration and sacred responsibility of all Chinese sons and daughters”.
At the same time, in the last paragraph, it is argued that China and the United States should treat each other with “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, no-confrontation and win-win cooperation”, and argued that the US has to stop using the “Taiwan card” as a leverage on China.
EXPERTS
In order to make a broader contribution to society in response to changes in international affairs, approximately 20 experts in the fields of international relations, geopolitics, area studies, economic security, international security order, and emerging technologies, who conduct research and make recommendations, engage in intellectual dialogue with Japanese and overseas experts and promote human resource development, are registered as researchers at I-House.
<China>
Naoko Eto
Senior Fellow
Group Head, China
<International Security Order>
Sadamasa Oue
Consulting Senior Fellow
Group Head, International Security Order
<International Security Order>
Hirohito Ogi
Senior Research Fellow
<Economic Security>
Yoshiyuki Sagara
Senior Research Fellow
<Emerging Technologies>
Makoto Shiono
Director of Management
Group Head, Emerging Technologies
Ken Jimbo
Managing Director
President, Asia Pacific Initiative
<Economic Security>
Kazuto Suzuki
Director
Group Head, Economic Security
<China>
Tatsuhito Tokuchi
Consulting Senior Fellow
<Europe & the Americas>
Yuichi Hosoya
Director of Research, API
Group Head, Europe & the Americas
<China>
Hotaka Machida
Visiting Senior Research Fellow
<Economic Security>
Satoshi Yamada
Visiting Senior Research Fellow
Satoshi Yamada
Visiting Research Fellow
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