[Comments] The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party, boycotted the Bangladesh general election, leading to a victory for the ruling Awami League (AL) and the continuation of the incumbent Hasina administration. The BNP had protested against political repression by the government, including arrests of opposition activists, and had engaged in riots and destructive actions before the election. While there were no major disturbances on the election day, the opposition’s boycott aimed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of this election. In fact, while voter turnout was nearly 80% in the previous election, it was only around 40% (and possibly even lower) this time, according to election authorities. Despite significant economic growth in Bangladesh, inflation and price increases in food items have affected people’s lives, particularly due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. There is growing discontent among the populace. The task of governing for the Hasina administration may become even more challenging in the future. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] In the presidential election held on February 4th, the incumbent president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, was re-elected with overwhelming support. He had changed the interpretation of the constitution, which stipulates a single term of 5 years for the presidency, to allow for re-election by dismissing judges of the Constitutional Court. President Bukele, who proudly refers to himself as the “world’s coolest dictator,” has gained popularity among the citizens for his authoritarian methods in restoring security, such as arresting gang members without warrants. Yet concerns are also voiced about his approach, as many innocent individuals have been arrested on false charges under his security policies. His initiatives, such as adopting Bitcoin as legal tender earlier than any other country in the world so as to break away from US dependency and facilitating remittances from migrant workers, which are crucial for the Salvadoran economy, have not resonated well with the citizens. The election left an impression of ongoing challenges to democracy and the rule of law, as it seemed to draw inspiration from the authoritarian security measures previously implemented by Philippine President Duterte and introduce mechanisms to maintain power beyond the provisions of the constitution, similar to the approaches taken by President Xi Jinping and President Putin. (Kazuto Suzuko)

[Comments] President Aliyev, who achieved victory in last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and resolved the long-standing territorial issue by incorporating the region into Azerbaijan on January 1st, won the election with 92% of the votes. Formally, there were seven candidates running, but it was essentially an election heavily inclined towards a vote of confidence in President Aliyev. Since assuming office in 2003, President Aliyev has won five presidential elections. With the constitutional amendment in 2016 extending the presidential term to seven years, his presidency will extend into a long-term tenure until 2031. Azerbaijan, leveraging its wealth derived from abundant oil and natural gas resources, allocated substantial funds to its military, and relied on drones (the Bayraktar TB2) imported from its close ally Turkey to seize victory in the conflict against Armenia. As a result, Azerbaijan’s influence in the Caucasus region has grown, while Russia’s influence, which ended up abandoning Armenia, has diminished. Such geopolitical shifts and President Aliyev’s reinforcement of natural gas exports to Europe due to sanctions against Russia solidified his support. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] The general elections in Pakistan held on February 8th saw independent candidates affiliated with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by former Prime Minister Khan, securing 97 seats. The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), led by former Prime Minister Sharif, won 76 seats, while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by the son of former Prime Minister Bhutto, secured 54 seats. (The total number of seats is 265).
Although none of them were able to secure a majority, it is likely that the PMLN and PPP will form a coalition, allowing Sharif to return as prime minister. Pakistan’s military wields significant influence in politics, and to favor the PMLN, which is supported by the military, former Prime Minister Khan was convicted in court and forced to campaign from prison. Additionally, participating in elections under the PTI name was prohibited and even the use of a cricket bat in election campaigning, which represents Khan, a nationally revered cricketer, was banned. Despite such thorough measures, the group affiliated with the PTI still emerged as the largest party. This outcome can be attributed to factors such as societal divisions and resentment towards military intervention. However, amidst numerous challenges, including the recovery from widespread flooding across the country, a new government will find itself in a situation where it must navigate unstable governance. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] In the Finnish presidential election’s runoff vote held on February 11th after Finland acceded to NATO, Alexander Stubb, former Prime Minister of the centre-right National Coalition Party, defeated Pekka Haavisto, former Foreign Minister of the left-wing Social Democratic Party, to be elected as the new President.
Finland is operated under a parliamentary system of government with President serving as the head of state. The President’s term is 6 years and can be re-elected for up to 2 terms. Former Prime Minister Stubb will become the 13th President, succeeding the current President Niinistö, who was in office for 12 years. Finland shares a 1,300 kilometres border with Russia and presents a traditional anti-Russian sentiment. Under the previous presidency, the conventional neutral diplomatic stance changed,. However, in the runoff election, both right-leaning former Prime Minister Stubb and left-leaning former Foreign Minister Haavisto shared a pro-NATO stance of continuing the so-called ‘Niinistö path’ that materialised the accession to NATO. Former Prime Minister Stubb had taken a rather assertive stance towards Russia, particularly regarding issues such as NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. Mr. Stubb is a political scientist who earned his PhD at the London School of Economics (LSE). He is also an internationally oriented figure who has served as Foreign Minister of Finland, and a member of the European Parliament, as well as holding a professorship at the European University Institute (EUI). (Hosoya Yuichi)

[Comments] The Indonesian Presidential election was held on February 14th, and while the election results are not yet finalised, Defence Minister Prabowo is considered likely to win with 60% of the votes (based on aggregation from major private surveys), pulling ahead of the two candidates. Prabowo stated to inherit the policy from the current Joko administration, which has maintained high approval ratings. He gained broad support by advocating for a path of economic growth, job creation, and advanced industrial policies. For the parliamentary election held on the same day, there is a possibility for Prabowo’s Golkar party to lose its spot as a major party and become a minority ruling party. Prabowo, who once faced suspicion of human rights violations during the Suharto regime, desperately cemented his power by adopting a more moderate stance during the campaign and seeking to leverage Joko’s popularity by nominating his son as vice-presidential candidate. As there is also lingering resentment over the nomination of presidential candidates towards the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, which emerged as the largest party in the parliamentary elections, the coalition-building that Prabowo aims for will not likely proceed smoothly. While the Indonesian democracy has been established as a response to the 1997 financial crisis, its implementation is gradually becoming unstable. (Jimbo Ken).

[Comments] The parliamentary (Majilis) elections in Iran held on March 1st have yet to be finalized due to 45 seats in constituencies, whose voter turnout below 20% being subject to re-vote, out of the total 490 seats. However, conservative factions have overwhelmingly secured a majority of the seats. Rather than the Iranian people choosing conservative factions, it is the result of the Guardian Council, which conducts eligibility reviews of candidates prior to elections (dominated by conservative clerics), disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates across the board. The course of events was similar to the 2021 presidential election, where Ebrahim Raisi became president as a result of the selection process by the Guardian Council. This repetition of patterns has led to disillusionment among the populace regarding the elections. The voter turnout was 41%, the lowest in history, with Tehran seeing a blank ballot rate of 25% among the votes cast, as well as other urban areas seeing similar trends. The “legitimacy of the system based on elections”, which has served as a compound structure of rule by Islamic clerics and republican governance, is being eroded in Iran. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] The Portuguese General Election was held on March 10th in light of the dissolution of the parliament and the resignation of the prime minister due to a corruption scandal. While the Socialist Party (PS), the ruling center-left party decreased its number of seats from 129 to 77, the far-right party Chega (which means “Enough” in Portuguese), led by a former sports commentator André Ventura, increased its number of seats from 12 to 48, quadrupling from before the election and advancing to become the third-largest party.The center-right coalition led by the largest opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), secured only 79 seats, and neither of the two major parties, PS and PSD, were able to secure a majority (total seats being 230). Meanwhile, Chega increased its seats by absorbing voters’ dissatisfaction with corruption, soaring housing prices, and economic policies. Luís Montenegro, the leader of the PSD which narrowly secured the position of the largest party, denied the possibility of forming a coalition with Chega. Thus, there is a possibility that the new administration will be a minority government. Portugal has maintained relatively stable politics since democratization in 1974, with small policy differences between the two major parties. Yet it is now facing scrutiny over whether it can continue its stable political trajectory in the future. (Yusuke Ishikawa)

[Comments] In Russia, the presidential election took place from March 15th to 17th, 2024. According to the Central Election Commission, Vladimir Putin, the incumbent President, secured 76.27 million votes, confirming his victory. The voting percentage was 87.28%, and the voter turnout was 77.49%, both of which are the highest on record.
In the 1993 constitution, the presidential term was set at four years with a maximum of two consecutive terms. However, with the constitutional amendment in 2008, the term was extended to six years, and further amendments in 2020 allowed former presidents to serve up to three terms. As a result, President Putin could potentially remain in office until 2036 at maximum. In this presidential election, the voting period was extended to three days, longer than usual, and electronic voting was introduced in an effort to increase voter turnout. However, candidates who clearly criticized the government were not allowed to run, and ultimately only four candidates (the lowest number in history) were permitted to stand for election. The voting percentage for Putin was 87.28% while those of other candidates were only approximately 4%, resulting in the expected “landslide victory” for incumbent President Putin.
In the election, voting was conducted in the four eastern and southern provinces of Ukraine occupied by Russia, with reports indicating that “around 90%” of the vote went to President Putin. However, as there were reports indicating that voters were coerced by armed groups, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi strongly criticized the situation as “a clear violation of international law that cannot be tolerated under any circumstances.”
Indeed, the Russian economy has shown positive growth of a 3.6% increase in 2023, attributed to factors such as increased military spending, a housing bubble, and expansion of natural resource exports. It is likely that these favorable economic indicators have garnered some level of approval from the Russian populace. At the same time, as constraints on freedoms, such as freedom of speech, have intensified even further due to the war, it is challenging to determine to what extent these figures of voter turnout and voting percentage truly reflect the reality. (Yuichi Hosoya)

[Comments] On April 6th, the runoff vote for the presidential election was held in Slovakia. In the initial round of voting held on March 23rd, none of the candidates were able to secure a majority of support. There were voices predicting a close runoff between the top two candidates, with Ivan Korčok, a pro-Western figure and former Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, surpassing Peter Pellegrini, a former Prime Minister aligned with Prime Minister Fico, in the first round. However, it was Pellegrini who emerged victorious, securing approximately 53% of the vote, while Korčok remained at around 47%. Pellegrini has favored a “war or peace” rhetoric reminiscent of Hungary’s Orbán government, by accusing Korčok of being a “warmonger” and “wanting to drag Slovakia into the war”. Pellegrini’s victory, who advocated for “peace,” lent credence to the Fico government’s call for halting military support to Ukraine. The voter turnout in the runoff election was 61%, higher than the initial round (56%), and it is believed that Pellegrini gained additional support from the far-right by inciting fears of war. Furthermore, the President of Slovakia holds the authority of appointment of ministers and judges and veto over bills, thus playing a role of reining the government to some extent, despite that being a limited power. From a viewpoint of democracy, future intervention in the judiciary and media by the Fico administration will be a cause for concern. (Yusuke Ishikawa)