[Comments] In the Solomon Island general election held on April 17th, the pro-China political party ‘OUR Party’ led by Prime Minister Sogavare secured 15 seats out of 50 and became the largest party, while it failed to reach a majority. On the other hand, the opposition parties critical of China’s involvement, including the Solomon Islands Democratic Party, the Solomon Islands United Party, the Kadere Party, the Umi for Change, and the Democratic Alliance, collectively held 20 seats. Coalition negotiations between the ruling and opposition parties have intensified over independent members of parliament. The voter turnout was 86.17％, indicating the high level of interest and engagement in the election. The point of contention was signing of a military agreement with China, but with the ruling party being unable to secure a majority, reaching such an agreement has become more challenging. It could be said that the election demonstrated strong opposition to Prime Minister Sogavare’s decision of severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with China, along with receiving substantial assistance from China. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party, boycotted the Bangladesh general election, leading to a victory for the ruling Awami League (AL) and the continuation of the incumbent Hasina administration. The BNP had protested against political repression by the government, including arrests of opposition activists, and had engaged in riots and destructive actions before the election. While there were no major disturbances on the election day, the opposition’s boycott aimed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of this election. In fact, while voter turnout was nearly 80% in the previous election, it was only around 40% (and possibly even lower) this time, according to election authorities. Despite significant economic growth in Bangladesh, inflation and price increases in food items have affected people’s lives, particularly due to the war between Russia and Ukraine. There is growing discontent among the populace. The task of governing for the Hasina administration may become even more challenging in the future. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] In the presidential election held on February 4th, the incumbent president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, was re-elected with overwhelming support. He had changed the interpretation of the constitution, which stipulates a single term of 5 years for the presidency, to allow for re-election by dismissing judges of the Constitutional Court. President Bukele, who proudly refers to himself as the “world’s coolest dictator,” has gained popularity among the citizens for his authoritarian methods in restoring security, such as arresting gang members without warrants. Yet concerns are also voiced about his approach, as many innocent individuals have been arrested on false charges under his security policies. His initiatives, such as adopting Bitcoin as legal tender earlier than any other country in the world so as to break away from US dependency and facilitating remittances from migrant workers, which are crucial for the Salvadoran economy, have not resonated well with the citizens. The election left an impression of ongoing challenges to democracy and the rule of law, as it seemed to draw inspiration from the authoritarian security measures previously implemented by Philippine President Duterte and introduce mechanisms to maintain power beyond the provisions of the constitution, similar to the approaches taken by President Xi Jinping and President Putin. (Kazuto Suzuko)

[Comments] President Aliyev, who achieved victory in last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and resolved the long-standing territorial issue by incorporating the region into Azerbaijan on January 1st, won the election with 92% of the votes. Formally, there were seven candidates running, but it was essentially an election heavily inclined towards a vote of confidence in President Aliyev. Since assuming office in 2003, President Aliyev has won five presidential elections. With the constitutional amendment in 2016 extending the presidential term to seven years, his presidency will extend into a long-term tenure until 2031. Azerbaijan, leveraging its wealth derived from abundant oil and natural gas resources, allocated substantial funds to its military, and relied on drones (the Bayraktar TB2) imported from its close ally Turkey to seize victory in the conflict against Armenia. As a result, Azerbaijan’s influence in the Caucasus region has grown, while Russia’s influence, which ended up abandoning Armenia, has diminished. Such geopolitical shifts and President Aliyev’s reinforcement of natural gas exports to Europe due to sanctions against Russia solidified his support. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] The general elections in Pakistan held on February 8th saw independent candidates affiliated with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by former Prime Minister Khan, securing 97 seats. The Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN), led by former Prime Minister Sharif, won 76 seats, while the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), led by the son of former Prime Minister Bhutto, secured 54 seats. (The total number of seats is 265).
Although none of them were able to secure a majority, it is likely that the PMLN and PPP will form a coalition, allowing Sharif to return as prime minister. Pakistan’s military wields significant influence in politics, and to favor the PMLN, which is supported by the military, former Prime Minister Khan was convicted in court and forced to campaign from prison. Additionally, participating in elections under the PTI name was prohibited and even the use of a cricket bat in election campaigning, which represents Khan, a nationally revered cricketer, was banned. Despite such thorough measures, the group affiliated with the PTI still emerged as the largest party. This outcome can be attributed to factors such as societal divisions and resentment towards military intervention. However, amidst numerous challenges, including the recovery from widespread flooding across the country, a new government will find itself in a situation where it must navigate unstable governance. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] In the Finnish presidential election’s runoff vote held on February 11th after Finland acceded to NATO, Alexander Stubb, former Prime Minister of the centre-right National Coalition Party, defeated Pekka Haavisto, former Foreign Minister of the left-wing Social Democratic Party, to be elected as the new President.
Finland is operated under a parliamentary system of government with President serving as the head of state. The President’s term is 6 years and can be re-elected for up to 2 terms. Former Prime Minister Stubb will become the 13th President, succeeding the current President Niinistö, who was in office for 12 years. Finland shares a 1,300 kilometres border with Russia and presents a traditional anti-Russian sentiment. Under the previous presidency, the conventional neutral diplomatic stance changed,. However, in the runoff election, both right-leaning former Prime Minister Stubb and left-leaning former Foreign Minister Haavisto shared a pro-NATO stance of continuing the so-called ‘Niinistö path’ that materialised the accession to NATO. Former Prime Minister Stubb had taken a rather assertive stance towards Russia, particularly regarding issues such as NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. Mr. Stubb is a political scientist who earned his PhD at the London School of Economics (LSE). He is also an internationally oriented figure who has served as Foreign Minister of Finland, and a member of the European Parliament, as well as holding a professorship at the European University Institute (EUI). (Hosoya Yuichi)

[Comments] The Indonesian Presidential election was held on February 14th, and while the election results are not yet finalised, Defence Minister Prabowo is considered likely to win with 60% of the votes (based on aggregation from major private surveys), pulling ahead of the two candidates. Prabowo stated to inherit the policy from the current Joko administration, which has maintained high approval ratings. He gained broad support by advocating for a path of economic growth, job creation, and advanced industrial policies. For the parliamentary election held on the same day, there is a possibility for Prabowo’s Golkar party to lose its spot as a major party and become a minority ruling party. Prabowo, who once faced suspicion of human rights violations during the Suharto regime, desperately cemented his power by adopting a more moderate stance during the campaign and seeking to leverage Joko’s popularity by nominating his son as vice-presidential candidate. As there is also lingering resentment over the nomination of presidential candidates towards the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, which emerged as the largest party in the parliamentary elections, the coalition-building that Prabowo aims for will not likely proceed smoothly. While the Indonesian democracy has been established as a response to the 1997 financial crisis, its implementation is gradually becoming unstable. (Jimbo Ken).

[Comments] The Senegalese Presidential Election, which was scheduled to be held on 25 February 2024, was plunged into chaos when the incumbent president Sall suddenly announced the indefinite postponement of the election. However, since the Constitutional Council deemed the postponement of the election unconstitutional, the election was held on 24 March, and the opposition candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye won with 54.28%of the votes. Amadou Ba, the successor of Sall, was soundly defeated, securing only 35.79%of the votes. The situation is gradually stabilizing as Faye assumed office on April 2nd. In Senegal, which has been considered one of the most stable democracies in West Africa, it was questioned whether the country would transition from presidential authoritarianism due to the tyranny of the president. However, the intervention of the judiciary proved effective, and the acceptance of defeat by President Sall’s coalition in the election demonstrated the resilience of Senegal’s democracy. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] The parliamentary (Majilis) elections in Iran held on March 1st have yet to be finalized due to 45 seats in constituencies, whose voter turnout below 20% being subject to re-vote, out of the total 490 seats. However, conservative factions have overwhelmingly secured a majority of the seats. Rather than the Iranian people choosing conservative factions, it is the result of the Guardian Council, which conducts eligibility reviews of candidates prior to elections (dominated by conservative clerics), disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates across the board. The course of events was similar to the 2021 presidential election, where Ebrahim Raisi became president as a result of the selection process by the Guardian Council. This repetition of patterns has led to disillusionment among the populace regarding the elections. The voter turnout was 41%, the lowest in history, with Tehran seeing a blank ballot rate of 25% among the votes cast, as well as other urban areas seeing similar trends. The “legitimacy of the system based on elections”, which has served as a compound structure of rule by Islamic clerics and republican governance, is being eroded in Iran. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] The Portuguese General Election was held on March 10th in light of the dissolution of the parliament and the resignation of the prime minister due to a corruption scandal. While the Socialist Party (PS), the ruling center-left party decreased its number of seats from 129 to 77, the far-right party Chega (which means “Enough” in Portuguese), led by a former sports commentator André Ventura, increased its number of seats from 12 to 48, quadrupling from before the election and advancing to become the third-largest party.The center-right coalition led by the largest opposition party, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), secured only 79 seats, and neither of the two major parties, PS and PSD, were able to secure a majority (total seats being 230). Meanwhile, Chega increased its seats by absorbing voters’ dissatisfaction with corruption, soaring housing prices, and economic policies. Luís Montenegro, the leader of the PSD which narrowly secured the position of the largest party, denied the possibility of forming a coalition with Chega. Thus, there is a possibility that the new administration will be a minority government. Portugal has maintained relatively stable politics since democratization in 1974, with small policy differences between the two major parties. Yet it is now facing scrutiny over whether it can continue its stable political trajectory in the future. (Yusuke Ishikawa)

[Comments] In Russia, the presidential election took place from March 15th to 17th, 2024. According to the Central Election Commission, Vladimir Putin, the incumbent President, secured 76.27 million votes, confirming his victory. The voting percentage was 87.28%, and the voter turnout was 77.49%, both of which are the highest on record.
In the 1993 constitution, the presidential term was set at four years with a maximum of two consecutive terms. However, with the constitutional amendment in 2008, the term was extended to six years, and further amendments in 2020 allowed former presidents to serve up to three terms. As a result, President Putin could potentially remain in office until 2036 at maximum. In this presidential election, the voting period was extended to three days, longer than usual, and electronic voting was introduced in an effort to increase voter turnout. However, candidates who clearly criticized the government were not allowed to run, and ultimately only four candidates (the lowest number in history) were permitted to stand for election. The voting percentage for Putin was 87.28% while those of other candidates were only approximately 4%, resulting in the expected “landslide victory” for incumbent President Putin.
In the election, voting was conducted in the four eastern and southern provinces of Ukraine occupied by Russia, with reports indicating that “around 90%” of the vote went to President Putin. However, as there were reports indicating that voters were coerced by armed groups, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi strongly criticized the situation as “a clear violation of international law that cannot be tolerated under any circumstances.”
Indeed, the Russian economy has shown positive growth of a 3.6% increase in 2023, attributed to factors such as increased military spending, a housing bubble, and expansion of natural resource exports. It is likely that these favorable economic indicators have garnered some level of approval from the Russian populace. At the same time, as constraints on freedoms, such as freedom of speech, have intensified even further due to the war, it is challenging to determine to what extent these figures of voter turnout and voting percentage truly reflect the reality. (Yuichi Hosoya)

[Comments] On April 6th, the runoff vote for the presidential election was held in Slovakia. In the initial round of voting held on March 23rd, none of the candidates were able to secure a majority of support. There were voices predicting a close runoff between the top two candidates, with Ivan Korčok, a pro-Western figure and former Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, surpassing Peter Pellegrini, a former Prime Minister aligned with Prime Minister Fico, in the first round. However, it was Pellegrini who emerged victorious, securing approximately 53% of the vote, while Korčok remained at around 47%. Pellegrini has favored a “war or peace” rhetoric reminiscent of Hungary’s Orbán government, by accusing Korčok of being a “warmonger” and “wanting to drag Slovakia into the war”. Pellegrini’s victory, who advocated for “peace,” lent credence to the Fico government’s call for halting military support to Ukraine. The voter turnout in the runoff election was 61%, higher than the initial round (56%), and it is believed that Pellegrini gained additional support from the far-right by inciting fears of war. Furthermore, the President of Slovakia holds the authority of appointment of ministers and judges and veto over bills, thus playing a role of reining the government to some extent, despite that being a limited power. From a viewpoint of democracy, future intervention in the judiciary and media by the Fico administration will be a cause for concern. (Yusuke Ishikawa)

[Comments] The South Korean general election held on April 10th, with 300 seats at stake, saw the progressive opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, including its affiliated parties, achieve a landslide victory, further widening the division between the ruling party and the majority in the National Assembly. The Democratic Party of Korea garnered a majority with 175 seats (156 seats before the election), while the People Power Party, the minor ruling party, suffered resounding defeat securing only 108 seats (115 seats before the election). The Rebuilding Korea Party, the progressive party led by Mr. Cho Kuk, showed its presence as third power garnering 12 seats. In the election campaign, headwinds blew against the ruling party due to issues such as rapid inflation countermeasures, increasing medical school quotas in South Korea, and government scandals. The opposition fell short of the two-thirds majority required to impeach the president, but they are now capable of swift processing of billsin which the ruling and opposition parties confront. The ruling party had been below the majority threshold since before the election, and it was no longer able to prevent the opposition’s bills from being introduced independently, as it had hoped. The election results did not show any signs of rapid changes in the diplomatic and security policies of the Yun administration. However, if President Yun’s influence diminishes and the ruling party is unable to pass bills or budgets, the need to compromise with the progressive faction will become inevitable in many instances. As a result, there is a high possibility that the momentum behind diplomatic and security policies could be weakened. (Ken Jimbo)

[Comments] In the Solomon Island general election held on April 17th, the pro-China political party ‘OUR Party’ led by Prime Minister Sogavare secured 15 seats out of 50 and became the largest party, while it failed to reach a majority. On the other hand, the opposition parties critical of China’s involvement, including the Solomon Islands Democratic Party, the Solomon Islands United Party, the Kadere Party, the Umi for Change, and the Democratic Alliance, collectively held 20 seats. Coalition negotiations between the ruling and opposition parties have intensified over independent members of parliament. The voter turnout was 86.17％, indicating the high level of interest and engagement in the election. The point of contention was signing of a military agreement with China, but with the ruling party being unable to secure a majority, reaching such an agreement has become more challenging. It could be said that the election demonstrated strong opposition to Prime Minister Sogavare’s decision of severing ties with Taiwan and normalizing relations with China, along with receiving substantial assistance from China. (Kazuto Suzuki)

[Comments] In 2024, Croatia is facing three major elections: parliamentary, the European Parliament, and presidential elections. The first of these, the parliamentary election, took place on April 17th. The general election saw a competition between the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) led by incumbent pro-EU Prime Minister Plenković, and the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) led by former Prime Minister and President Milanović, who held a ceremonial role as president. Milanović’s SDP took a stance against supporting Ukraine, narrowing the gap between the two parties. According to the preliminary results, while the HDZ secured 61 seats (out of 151 in the unicameral parliament), decreasing its seats by 5, the SDP gained 42 seats, with an increase of 1 seat. The Homeland Movement, the emerging right-wing third party secured 14 seats with a decrease of 2 seats. Overall, the electoral landscape did not undergo significant changes. However, considering that Plenković’s HDZ failed to secure a majority in the 2020 general election and has been barely maintaining the government by garnering support from smaller parties, it won’t be easy to make up for the lost 5 seats through coalition with other parties. Furthermore, in the general election, the main focus shifted from policies on EU and Ukraine to domestic economic stagnation and repeated corruption allegations against the ruling party. This highlighted the intensity of criticism directed at the incumbent Plenković administration. The type of coalition the administration will form and the domestic measures it will take are likely to influence the European Parliamentary elections in June and the presidential elections in December. (Yusuke Ishikawa)

[Comments] The Maldivian parliamentary election held on April 21st is expected to result in a landslide victory for the People’s National Congress (PNC), the party of President Muizzu, who won the presidential election last October, with the PNC securing 71 out of 93 seats. On the other hand, the opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) is expected to secure only 12 seats. The voter turnout was 72.9%, significantly lower than the 82% turnout in the previous election in 2019. President Muizzu, for the first time as president of the Maldives, visited China before India and seemed to prioritize relations with China over India. Additionally, he pursued policies aimed at severing ties with India, such as expelling Indian military personnel stationed in the Maldives (however, after negotiations with India, a resolution was reached with the replacement of military personnel with technicians for maintenance of rescue helicopters). This election helped further strengthen his stance and policies aimed at enhancing ties with China. The Democratic Party, led by pro-India former President Nasheed, who defected from the MDP, failed to secure any seats. Similarly, the new party founded by former President Yameen, who is a mentor to President Muizzu, also failed to win any seats. With this outcome, authority is now concentrated in the hands of President Muizzu, leading to increased dependence on China and a higher likelihood of escalating tensions with India. (Kazuto Suzuki)