{"id":23997,"date":"2012-11-02T15:46:16","date_gmt":"2012-11-02T06:46:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.apinitiative.org\/project\/crisismanagement\/"},"modified":"2021-08-07T18:31:29","modified_gmt":"2021-08-07T09:31:29","slug":"crisismanagement","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/project\/crisismanagement\/","title":{"rendered":"Crisis Management"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/GaIeyudaTuFo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/crisismanagement-e.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/p>\n<div class=\"col_4 small\"><a href=\"\/GaIeyudaTuFo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/crisisManagement_20130318.pdf\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-2924\" title=\"JapanInPeril\" src=\"\/GaIeyudaTuFo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/JapanInPeril.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/GaIeyudaTuFo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/JapanInPeril.jpg 257w, https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/GaIeyudaTuFo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/JapanInPeril-204x300.jpg 204w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 257px) 100vw, 257px\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"col_8\">Through RJIF\u2019s inaugural project, \u201cThe Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Nuclear Accident\u201d, the vulnerability of Japan\u2019s crisis management system rose to the fore. In response, we thus initiated the \u201cCrisis Management Project\u201d to identify various issues within Japan\u2019s crisis management systems and consider how such systems could be improved. To this end, we engaged 20 specialists (including university professors, think tank researchers, journalists, and lawyers) and examined by focusing on the nine worst-case scenarios ranging from natural disasters to military clashes. These nine crises represent neither a prediction nor a forecast; each scenario is the products of an imaginative thought process for what would be able to happen if the crises did developed in the most catastrophic manner. However, this analysis still clearly reveals various issues within Japan\u2019s current systems and its capacity to withstand a crisis. The original version (Japanese) was published in March 2013, and the English-translated version (titled \u201cJapan in Peril -9 crisis scenarios\u201d) was published in February 2014.<\/p>\n<p class=\"small\">Author: Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation<br \/>\nPublisher: CLSA<br \/>\nPaperback: 199 pages<br \/>\nFirst Published: February 20, 2014<br \/>\nISBN: 978-988-98942-6-9<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.co.uk\/Japan-Peril-9-crisis-scenarios\/dp\/9889894262\/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1424924046&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=japan+in+peril+9+crisis+scenarios\" class=\"button small\">Amazon<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"cB\"><\/div>\n<h2>Reports in other languages<\/h2>\n<h3>Japanese:<br \/>\n\u300e\u65e5\u672c\u6700\u60aa\u306e\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u30009\u3064\u306e\u6b7b\u89d2\u300f<\/h3>\n<div class=\"col_4 small\">\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.co.jp\/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%80%E6%82%AA%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B7%E3%83%8A%E3%83%AA%E3%82%AA-9%E3%81%A4%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%BB%E8%A7%92-%E8%B2%A1%E5%9B%A3%E6%B3%95%E4%BA%BA%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%86%8D%E5%BB%BA%E3%82%A4%E3%83%8B%E3%82%B7%E3%82%A2%E3%83%86%E3%82%A3%E3%83%96\/dp\/4103337311\/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1424920773&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%80%E6%82%AA%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B7%E3%83%8A%E3%83%AA%E3%82%AA\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/img\/books\/j5.jpg\" width=\"180\"><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col_8\">\n<p class=\"small\">Author: Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation<br \/>\nPublisher: Shinchosha<br \/>\nFirst Published: March 15, 2013<br \/>\nISBN: 978-4103337317<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.co.jp\/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%80%E6%82%AA%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B7%E3%83%8A%E3%83%AA%E3%82%AA-9%E3%81%A4%E3%81%AE%E6%AD%BB%E8%A7%92-%E8%B2%A1%E5%9B%A3%E6%B3%95%E4%BA%BA%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%86%8D%E5%BB%BA%E3%82%A4%E3%83%8B%E3%82%B7%E3%82%A2%E3%83%86%E3%82%A3%E3%83%96\/dp\/4103337311\/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1424920773&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E6%9C%80%E6%82%AA%E3%81%AE%E3%82%B7%E3%83%8A%E3%83%AA%E3%82%AA\" class=\"button small\">Amazon<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"cB\"><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"\">Korean:<br \/>\n\uc77c\ubcf8 \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624 9\uac1c\uc758 \uc0ac\uac01\uc9c0\ub300<br \/>\n\uff08Japan in Peril? : 9 crisis scenarios\uff09<\/h3>\n<div class=\"col_4 small\">\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"180\" src=\"\/img\/books\/e4.jpg\"><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col_8\">\n<p class=\"small\">Author: \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc7ac\uac74 \uc774\ub2c8\uc154\ud2f0\ube0c\uff08Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation\uff09<br \/>\nPublisher: NANAM Publishing House<br \/>\nFirst Published: February 26, 2015<br \/>\nLanguage: Korean<br \/>\nISBN: 978-89-300-8746-9<\/p>\n<div class=\"readmore\"><a class=\"button small\">See Table of Contents<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"moreread\">\n<p> Preface<\/p>\n<p>Part 1: Disaster Scenarios<br \/>\n1. Island dispute: Confrontation over Senkaku<br \/>\n2. Financial meltdown: Japan suffers boiling-frog syndrome<br \/>\n3. Tokyo quake: Collapse of amazon.com society<br \/>\n4. Cyberterrorism: Urban infrastructure under attack<br \/>\n5. Pandemic: The day the doctors disappeared<br \/>\n6. Energy crisis: Strait of Hormuz blocked<br \/>\n7. Collapse of North Korea: Japan\u2019s non-nuclear principles waver<br \/>\n8. Nuclear terrorism: Did we learn anything from 3\/11?<br \/>\n9. Shrinking population: Japan\u2019s youth turn into terrorists<\/p>\n<p>Part2: What the Scenarios Tell Us<br \/>\n10. Legal framework<br \/>\n11. Coordination between state and private sector for managing risks<br \/>\n12. Cross-border strategies<br \/>\n13. Role of the Prime Minister\u2019s office<br \/>\n14. Communication<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"cB\"><\/div>\n<h2>The 9 worst case scenarios<\/h2>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<h3>Senkaku incident: the unexpected denouement of defensive and offensive posturings over the islands<\/h3>\n<p>In response to China\u2019s increasing menace over the Senkaku islands, Japan must prepare for a battle entailing a collective effort; it will require not only military force, but also efforts in the spheres of diplomacy, politics, economics, and information transmission. Once the smoke has cleared, the outcome will dramatically alter the prevailing order and power dynamics of East Asia.<\/li>\n<li>\n<h3>Japanese government bond market plunge: the \u201cboiled frog\u201d risk facing Japan<\/h3>\n<p>Japanese government debt has soared to more than 200% of GDP. At just 10%, consumption tax is a mere drop in the bucket. Nevertheless, owing to the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and the sheer enormity of the economy, a southern European-type collapse can be avoided. But what waits in the aftermath\u2026?<\/li>\n<li>\n<h3>Tokyo Metropolitan Megaquake: collapse of an Amazon-type society<\/h3>\n<p>The probability of an earthquake directly hitting Tokyo within the next 30 years surpasses 70% in some areas of the city. Preventive measures are being taken based on the lessons of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake. However, the idea is merely a \u201cconvenient scenario\u201d. Preparations thus do not assume the worst, and the demonstrable effectiveness of the measures is therefore questionable.<\/li>\n<li>\n<h3>Cyberterrorism: targeting urban infrastructure<\/h3>\n<p>Apparently, some countries \u2013 including Israel, North Korea, and China \u2013 are amassing hackers to form a covert cyber-attack force. A new war targeting the modern lifeline, threatening to paralyze critical infrastructures, has thus begun.<\/li>\n<li>\n<h3>Pandemic: the day the doctors disappeared<\/h3>\n<p>In the midst of a raging unknown virus outbreak, the medical field will face the crisis of an impending collapse through lack of adequate medical staff and equipment. Solving the problem will hinge on whether difficult decisions can be made about who should die first.<\/li>\n<li>\n<h3>Energy crisis: an invisible chain of crises beginning from a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz<\/h3>\n<p>Forty years have passed since the oil crisis stemming from the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Although there has not been much cry for a review of Japan\u2019s energy strategy, there is a growing dependence on the Middle East. The ongoing state of affairs is such that a disturbance in the Straits could lead to a nationwide standstill for Japan.<\/li>\n<li>\n<h3>Collapse of North Korea: the three anti-nuclear principles, Japan\u2019s moment of decision<\/h3>\n<p>In the wake of the unification of North and South, the rising nationalism radiating out from the Korean Peninsula will spread through East Asia in a domino effect. The forbidden scenario of a nuclear-armed Japan will become a real possibility, and regional dynamics will immediately destabilize.<\/li>\n<li>\n<h3>Nuclear terrorism: lessons from 3\/11<\/h3>\n<p>Nuclear bombs have directly hit Kasumigaseki and Nagatacho, the two main administrative centers of Japan, and key government officials including the Prime Minister are all dead. How are the remaining survivors meant to proceed at that moment? The focus should be on training in earnest for the worst conceivable scenario, but\u2026<\/li>\n<li>\n<h3>Weakened population: 2050, the day youths become terrorists<\/h3>\n<p>Gradually but surely, the shrinking population will undermine Japan. Unless prompt action is taken, despair will sweep Japanese society in just a few short decades. However, to avert such a scenario, we must be prepared to relinquish the traditional Japanese views on society, family, and marriage.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Through RJIF\u2019s inaugural project, \u201cThe Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Nuclear Accident\u201d, the vulnerability of Japan\u2019s crisis management system rose to the fore. In response, we thus initiated the \u201cCrisis Management Project\u201d to identify various issues within Japan\u2019s crisis management systems and consider how such systems could be improved. To this end, we engaged &hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more\"> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/project\/crisismanagement\/\"> <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Crisis Management<\/span> Read More &raquo;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":22078,"parent":23911,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","template":"template\/page-project.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-23997","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/23997","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23997"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/23997\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25256,"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/23997\/revisions\/25256"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/23911"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22078"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/apinitiative.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23997"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}